WNBA playoff surprises: Why Dream, Mercury, more could crash the championship party

The conflict to crown the WNBA's 29th champion begins erstwhile the 2025 playoffs extremity disconnected Sunday (1 p.m. ET connected ESPN).

On paper, it looks similar a three-team race: You person the defending champ New York Liberty, who inactive person prima powerfulness -- Breanna Stewart, Sabrina Ionescu and Jonquel Jones -- from past year's rubric run. Then determination are A'ja Wilson and the Las Vegas Aces, who look amended poised to rekindle their dynasty than astatine immoderate constituent since they won it each for the 2nd consecutive clip successful 2023. And, past but not least, determination are the Minnesota Lynx -- the clear-cut champion squad of the regular play -- playing for their archetypal title with MVP front-runner Napheesa Collier.

There's a whopping 84% accidental 1 of those 3 teams lifts the trophy, based connected the implied probability of ESPN BET odds. That leaves conscionable 16% betwixt the remaining postseason squads: the Atlanta Dream, Phoenix Mercury, Seattle Storm, Golden State Valkyries and Indiana Fever -- but though it's a agelong shot, it's inactive statistically imaginable 1 of those 5 could clang the title party.

Let's marque the lawsuit for wherefore each of those 5 teams could marque a deeper tally than expected.

Note: "Elo simulated odds" are based connected Elo ratings, which absorption connected a team's game-by-game results, with an accent connected caller form. "SRS rating" is Basketball Reference's Simple Rating System (SRS), which is fundamentally a schedule-adjusted points per crippled differential.

MORE: Playoff predictions | Top 25 players | Schedule

Atlanta Dream (30-14)

ESPN BET odds: +1000 (7.8% implied prob.)
Elo simulated odds: 24.1%

SRS rating: +6.5 (second)
Offensive rating: 110.5 (second)
Defensive rating: 100.5 (second)

Best player: G Read Entire Article