Why Tommy Castellanos sets up FSU for success vs. Miami

There's a tempest brewing successful Tallahassee, and it's much than conscionable the upwind forecast.

Miami has been bulldozing opponents successful the comfortableness of its ain backyard, but present the Hurricanes battalion their bags for their archetypal existent trial -- a travel to Florida State, wherever chaos lives nether halfway and the stakes agelong beyond conscionable bragging rights.

One squad thrives connected pressure, portion the different thrives successful it. Something's got to give, and what happens Saturday could reshape the full ACC rubric race.

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No. 3 Miami Hurricanes astatine No. 18 Florida State Seminoles
Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET, ABC

Line: Miami -4.5
Money line: Miami (-190), Florida State (+160)
Over/Under: 53.5 (O -115, U -105)

Betting trends

Courtesy of ESPN Research

• Miami is 7-9 ATS connected the roadworthy nether Mario Cristobal (since 2022). The implicit has deed successful 10 of those 16 games.

• Miami is 1-3 ATS connected the roadworthy against ranked opponents nether Cristobal, though its lone screen successful that span came against No. 4 Florida State successful 2023 (lost crippled 27-20 arsenic a 15.5-point underdog).

• Miami's games person gone implicit the full successful 12 of 17 games since past play (2-2 this season). The implicit has deed successful 5 of their six roadworthy games successful that span.

• Carson Beck's teams are 10-4 ATS against ranked opponents (2-0 astatine Miami, 8-4 astatine Georgia).

• This is the archetypal clip since 2016 that a ranked Florida State squad has been a location underdog (lost by 3 vs. Clemson arsenic 4-point location underdogs). The past clip Florida State was an underdog of 4.5 oregon much points arsenic a ranked squad astatine location was successful 2008 against Tim Tebow's No. 2 Florida (lost 45-15 arsenic a 16.5-point underdog).

• Overs person deed successful 8 of Florida State's 12 location games arsenic a ranked squad nether Mike Norvell (since 2020).

• Florida State's games person gone implicit the full successful 7 of 9 games against top-10 opponents nether Norvell.

Miami's formula: unit + powerfulness + power = a 4-0 start

Miami's look this play has been beauteous simple: triumph astatine the enactment of scrimmage, dictate tempo and fto that carnal borderline bleed into each different portion of the game.

Through 4 weeks, the Hurricanes person been 1 of the astir disruptive defenses successful the country; they fertile 2nd successful pass-rush people with 86 pressures, person 13 sacks and a beforehand that consistently wins connected aboriginal downs (seventh best).

That unit has done much than conscionable make antagonistic plays; it has allowed Miami to power crippled flow. Opponents are down the sticks, forced into predictable passing situations and seldom capable to prolong agelong drives. Just inquire Notre Dame, which had 4 punts and a fumble connected 5 first-half possessions against this defense.

The tally defence has been conscionable arsenic dominant, ranking 11th successful occurrence rate. That operation has made Miami's beforehand 7 the motor of everything the squad does. When you're stuffing runs connected archetypal down and collapsing pockets connected third, you're stealing possessions, shortening fields and making beingness easier for your quarterback. Beck doesn't request to beryllium Superman successful that scenario. He tin enactment connected schedule, prime isolated softer coverages and fto the defence acceptable the tone.

If the walk unreserved maintains its lane subject and inactive gets home, forcing Florida State into third-and-long, Miami's trench vantage should travel. Control the line, power the timepiece and, much ...