Why Alabama could move ahead early against Vandy

This is simply a condemnation I ne'er thought I'd type: Undefeated Vanderbilt is rolling into Tuscaloosa with playoff chatter starting to swirl. And yet, present we are.

The Commodores are 5-0, playing with assurance and looking thing similar the programme we've travel to expect. Across the tract is Alabama; 3-1 and caller disconnected a connection upset implicit Georgia that reminded everyone that it is inactive a heavyweight, adjacent if it looks a small antithetic these days.

It's the benignant of matchup that makes you intermission earlier firing a bet. Is Vanderbilt for real, oregon is it astir to get a world check? Is Alabama back, oregon inactive trying to fig retired who it is?

Let's interruption it each down: who these teams truly are, however the matchup could play out, and wherever the smartest betting space mightiness really beryllium hiding.

All likelihood by ESPN BET

No. 16 Vanderbilt Commodores astatine No. 10 Alabama Crimson Tide
Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC

Line: Alabama -10.5
Money line: Alabama (-450), Vanderbilt (+340)
Over/Under: 56.5 (O Even, U -120)

Betting trends

Courtesy of ESPN Research

• Vanderbilt is 6-0 ATS arsenic a roadworthy underdog since 2024.

• The Commodores person besides covered successful six consecutive roadworthy games against SEC opponents, 1 shy of tying their longest specified streak implicit the past 40 years (seven consecutive from 2008-10).

• Vanderbilt is 7-3 ATS successful its past 10 games arsenic a double-digit underdog.

• Diego Pavia is 18-8 ATS successful his vocation arsenic an underdog (14-12 outright). He is 10-2 ATS and 7-5 outright arsenic an underdog with Vanderbilt. He is 7-1 ATS and 4-4 outright astatine Vanderbilt erstwhile getting astatine slightest 7 points, and helium is 5-0 ATS and 3-2 outright erstwhile getting astatine slightest 10 points astatine Vanderbilt. Overall, Pavia has 5 outright wins arsenic a double-digit underdog, tied with Clayton Thorson for the astir successful the past 20 seasons.

• This would beryllium Vanderbilt's narrowest dispersed successful a roadworthy crippled against Alabama since being a 6.5-point underdog and upsetting Alabama successful 1984. That was besides the past clip Vanderbilt bushed Alabama successful Tuscaloosa.

• Alabama is 7-6 ATS arsenic a double-digit favourite nether Kalen DeBoer (since 2024), but 6-2 erstwhile those games are astatine home.

• The Crimson Tide are 4-1 ATS against ranked opponents nether DeBoer.

• Each of Alabama's past six games against SEC opponents has gone nether the total.

• Alabama is looking to screen the dispersed successful six consecutive location games for the archetypal clip since a six-game streak from 2019 to '20.

Why this is not your emblematic Vanderbilt team

For years, Vanderbilt has been the SEC's gritty, disciplined underdog but seldom a existent threat. That communicative mightiness yet nary longer apply.

At 5-0 for the archetypal clip since 2008, the Commodores could beryllium proving they beryllium successful the playoff conversation, and it's not fume and mirrors. This is simply a squad built connected a wide identity: balance, physicality, and relentless efficiency.

The discourtesy has been the engine. Quarterback Diego Pavia is thriving successful a strategy that blends powerfulness and tempo, completing implicit 70% of his passes portion orchestrating 1 of the nation's astir balanced attacks.

Vanderbilt averages astir 500 yards, fueled by a crushed crippled that is archetypal successful the SEC successful yards pe...