Who is this year's Mr. October? Tracking the playoff leaders so far

Let's disregard the information that the 2025 MLB playoffs began connected the past time of September and mightiness extremity connected the archetypal time of November -- due to the fact that it's ever October erstwhile it comes to playoff shot -- and inquire this: Who is this year's Mr. October?

What if I told you that truthful far, it's a definite Japanese-born prima connected the Los Angeles Dodgers with a nasty splitter? OK, admittedly that doesn't constrictive it down arsenic overmuch arsenic you would think, but I'm guessing the archetypal sanction that flashed successful your caput was Shohei Ohtani. The close answer: Roki Sasaki. For now, anyway.

At slightest that's the reply done the rubric of Win Probability Added (WPA, a metric that's been astir for a portion present and has a batch of inferior successful putting numbers to the narratives that look arsenic the October bracket plays out.

The Dodgers, the sole wild-card squad remaining, person played an other round, and Sasaki presently leads each players connected baseball's last 4 rosters successful playoff WPA with .706. Here's Sasaki's game-by-game performance:

Oct. 1: .015 (Finished the past inning of an 8-4 wild-card triumph implicit the Cincinnati Reds, a comparatively low-leverage outing. But helium looked bully doing it, mounting the Reds down successful bid with 2 whiffs. Hmmm. Maybe this means something.)

Oct. 4: .099 (Closed retired the Dodger's 5-3 triumph Game 1 of the part bid astatine the Philadelphia Phillies. Something is decidedly brewing here.)

Oct. 6: .208 (Sasaki faced 1 batter! But it was the past batter of the game, Trea Turner, and determination were runners connected the corners with 2 outs with the Dodgers clinging to a 4-3 lead. Turner grounded out, and the Dodgers grabbed a commanding pb successful the series. L.A., we mightiness person a caller closer.)

Oct. 9: .384 (Sasaki retired each 9 batters helium faced during the eighth, ninth and 10th innings of a 1-1 game. The Dodgers went connected to triumph the bid clincher, and immoderate doubts that L.A. has recovered a lethal, high-leverage playoff reliever were erased.)

Numbers that relation arsenic narrative. That's WPA. We've been keeping tabs connected these numbers arsenic the playoffs person unfolded -- and volition proceed to bash so. Our leaderboards and conclusions volition beryllium updated present arsenic we determination forward, truthful support checking back.

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Methodology | Top 5 | WPA leader of the day
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Methodology

The mode WPA works is that play-by-play during a game, if you bash thing that improves your team's chances to win,...