UFC 321 experts' picks and best bets: Is anyone taking Ciryl Gane to upset Tom Aspinall?

Heavyweight champion Tom Aspinall volition yet marque his anticipated instrumentality to the Octagon against erstwhile interim champion Ciryl Gane this Saturday successful Abu Dhabi (2 p.m. ET connected ESPN PPV, prelims astatine 10 a.m.). In conscionable 8 UFC fights, Aspinall has distinguished himself among heavyweights for his speedy work. He owns the UFC grounds for shortest mean combat clip astatine 2 minutes, 2 seconds. He has besides won each 1 of his nonrecreational MMA fights by stoppage. He is taking connected the fourth-most close heavyweight successful UFC past successful Gane (61.3% important onslaught accuracy), who is connected a two-win streak.

A caller champion is guaranteed to beryllium crowned successful the co-main lawsuit betwixt Virna Jandiroba and Mackenzie Dern for the vacant strawweight championship. Jandiroba, ESPN's No. 2-ranked strawweight, enters the play connected the longest winning streak successful the part astatine 5. No. 6-ranked Dern is hoping for a repetition of UFC 256 5 years ago, erstwhile she defeated Jandiroba by unanimous decision.

ESPN MMA analysts and commentators supply their UFC rubric combat predictions, and ESPN betting adept Ian Parker adds penetration connected the worth bets disposable connected some combat cards.

Heavyweight rubric fight

I deliberation this combat volition look a batch similar Gane's nonaccomplishment to Jon Jones successful 2023, to beryllium honest. It conscionable astir apt won't extremity arsenic rapidly arsenic that submission 2 minutes into the archetypal round. The combat volition past arsenic agelong arsenic it takes Aspinall to get Gane down. Gane has power, and I'm not saying helium doesn't person a chance. You ever person a accidental with that benignant of power. But helium doesn't truly one-hit-quit radical aboriginal connected successful fights. Tom is diligent and he'll find his opening. -- Anthony Smith

I deliberation it volition beryllium comparatively adjacent for the archetypal 2 rounds, with a batch of speechmaking and mounting traps betwixt them. But past Tom's velocity volition commencement to asseverate itself arsenic the combat progresses, and that archetypal measurement of penetration with his close manus volition beryllium hard for Ciryl to halt consistently. That close manus volition beryllium the punch that yet puts Gane down. -- Din Thomas

Betting analysis

Odds close arsenic of Oct. 23. For the astir up-to-date odds, sojourn ESPN BET.

Parker: Aspinall to triumph wrong the region (-800). Aspinall volition yet participate the cage for the archetypal clip this twelvemonth aft waiting retired for a lucifer with Jon Jones that ne'er came to fruition. He takes connected kickboxer and multi-time rubric contender Gane, who is astir apt the much method striker, but Aspinall tin extremity a combat with a azygous punch astatine immoderate moment. The biggest discrepancy betwixt the 2 headliners lies successful the crushed game. Aspinall the wrestler volition beryllium airy years up of Gane successful each facet erstwhile the combat hits the ground. Look for Aspinall to usage his striking earlier bullrushing his mode into a takedown, but if a takedown happens the extremity for Gane volition beryllium near.

Strawweight rubric fight

Jandiroba is simply a grappler astatine heart, but Dern is conscionable a amended one. Mackenzie is amended astatine the main mode Jandiroba wins fights. It's not that Jandiroba can't strike, but that's not however she's typically getting her wins. Dern tin han...