Tinubu, Shettima and the Vice-Presidential curse, by Emmanuel Aziken

President Bola Tinubu’s recent dismissal of Fegho Umunubo, his Special Assistant connected Digital and Creative Economy who worked straight nether Vice President Kashim Shettima, has triggered a caller question of speculation astir the powerfulness dynamics wrong Aso Rock. To galore observers, the terse announcement that came from the president’s office, alternatively than the vice president’s, is different motion of the long-standing contented of keeping Nigeria’s second-in-command nether choky control.

The Legacy of Obasanjo and Atiku

 The roots of this hostility spell backmost to 2003, erstwhile President Olusegun Obasanjo reportedly had to marque concessions to his then-deputy, Atiku Abubakar, to unafraid the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) summons for a 2nd term. Stories of Obasanjo being compelled to “bow” earlier Atiku to get the information were wide circulated successful governmental circles and profoundly resented by the president.

 Determined to ne'er beryllium seen arsenic subservient to his deputy, Obasanjo utilized his 2nd word to clip Atiku’s wings. He insisted that the presidency would run arsenic a azygous entity, efficaciously subordinating the vice president. Within months, Garba Shehu—then Atiku’s spokesperson and present remembered arsenic Muhammadu Buhari’s media aide—was dismissed on with different loyalists of the vice president. By 2006, arsenic Obasanjo’s succession plans unfolded, much of Atiku’s aides were fired, culminating successful the failed effort to disregard Atiku outright.

 That play acceptable the precedent: aides of the vice president could beryllium hired and fired astatine the president’s discretion, reducing the bureau to 1 that was disposable but vulnerable.

Jonathan Under Yar’Adua

 When Umaru Musa Yar’Adua came to powerfulness successful 2007, his prime of Dr. Goodluck Jonathan arsenic vice president was seen arsenic a determination to appease the Niger Delta, past inactive roiled by militancy. Jonathan initially enjoyed much country to maneuver than Atiku had nether Obasanjo successful the 2nd term. He secured ministerial appointments, astir notably his wife’s sister, Diezani Alison-Madueke, who subsequently made past arsenic the archetypal pistillate Petroleum Minister.

 Jonathan besides influenced aboriginal Niger Delta policy, particularly connected amnesty and lipid assemblage reforms. But arsenic Yar’Adua’s wellness problems grew, powerfulness shifted to what became known arsenic the “Katsina Cabal.” Jonathan recovered himself progressively sidelined, with his Abuja illustration dimming portion helium sought refuge successful Port Harcourt, often hosted by Governor Rotimi Amaechi. By the clip Yar’Adua’s unwellness worsened, Jonathan had go a marginal fig successful his ain government, contempt holding the second-highest office.

 Yet, erstwhile Jonathan yet ascended the presidency aft Yar’Adua’s decease successful 2010, helium appeared to let his vice president, Namadi Sambo, much latitude—perhaps reflecting his ain bitter memories of being sidelined. Sambo operated with comparatively small interference, though helium ne'er emerged arsenic a large governmental unit successful his ain right.

Osinbajo’s Rise and Decline

 The coming of Muhammadu Buhari successful 2015 brought Professor Yemi Osinbajo into the vice presidency. Marketed arsenic the “brain box” of the administration, Osinbajo rapidly distinguished himself with his technocratic benignant and ineligible expertise. When Buhari spent months successful London receiving aesculapian treatment, Osinbajo was formally made Acting President, a uncommon amusement of trust.

During that period, Osinbajo won applause for decisive actions, including economical interventions and a consciousness of urgency successful governance. His astir arguable move, however, was the sacking of Lawal Daura, Director-General of the Department of State Services (DSS), successful August 2018. Although Osinbajo acted lawfully arsenic acting president, the determination rattled Buhari’s interior circle.

 The fallout was immediate: Buhari ne'er again formally transferred powerfulness to Osinbajo during his absences. In his 2nd term, Osinbajo’s power was sharply curtailed, with cardinal initiatives similar the “TraderMoni” run moved to different hands. From being seen arsenic a imaginable successor, Osinbajo became progressively sidelined.

Tinubu, Shettima and a Familiar Script

Against this backdrop, Tinubu’s handling of Shettima is being intimately scrutinized. Despite predominant planetary travels, Tinubu has not erstwhile ceded authorization to Shettima arsenic acting president—a departure from Buhari’s earlier signifier with Osinbajo. Even wrong the country, Shet...