The Worst Is Over? Tinubu’s Independence Gamble

Independence Day speeches are ever tricky. They indispensable onslaught a equilibrium betwixt nostalgia for the heroes of old, honesty astir contiguous struggles, and optimism for the future.

President Bola Tinubu, successful his code to people Nigeria’s 65th Independence anniversary, attempted each three. He invoked the spirits of Herbert Macaulay, Nnamdi Azikiwe, Obafemi Awolowo, Ahmadu Bello, Margaret Ekpo, and Funmilayo Ransome-Kuti, anchoring his code successful history.

He acknowledged the storms we person endured arsenic a nation—civil war, subject dictatorships, economical collapses—and reminded Nigerians that we stay standing. But past helium made a bolder claim: that “the worst is over.”

It was a enactment designed to seizure headlines and disturbance hope. Yet it was besides a gamble. In a state inactive groaning nether inflation, nutrient insecurity, and joblessness, to archer the radical that their darkest days are down them is either an enactment of courageousness oregon a governmental risk. Perhaps both.

For Tinubu, it was a declaration that the symptom of his aboriginal reforms—subsidy removal, overseas speech unification, taxation reforms—is yet giving mode to gain.

He had the numbers ready. He listed 12 economical milestones, a catalogue of achievements meant to beryllium that the tide has turned. Non-oil gross crossing ₦20 trillion by August 2025. Debt service-to-revenue ratio chopped from a suffocating 97 percent to nether 50. Foreign reserves are rising to $42 billion, the highest since 2019. Tax-to-GDP is climbing to 13.5 percent. Five consecutive quarters of commercialized surplus, non-oil exports present astir fractional of trade. Oil output is inching backmost up to 1.68 cardinal barrels per day, and petrol is being refined locally for the archetypal clip successful 40 years.

The naira, helium insisted, had stabilised aft ending aggregate speech rates. ₦330 cardinal disbursed to 8 cardinal households nether societal investment. Solid minerals accumulation is rebounding. New obstruction and road projects are taking shape. Sovereign recognition upgrades and the banal marketplace breaking records. Even the Central Bank is cutting involvement rates for the archetypal clip successful 5 years.

On paper, it is impressive. On the ground, it is harder to feel. The information of Nigerian economics is that a booming banal marketplace does not capable the mean household cookware of soup. But Tinubu’s connection was clear: these are not bare statistics, they are the foundations of a caller economy. Whether Nigerians judge him volition beryllium connected whether the numbers construe into cheaper food, reliable power, and safer streets.
Tinubu besides spoke astir security, different yardstick wherever Nigerians justice advancement not by authoritative communiqués but by lived experience. He praised the equipped forces for victories implicit Boko Haram, IPOB/ESN, and banditry, claiming bid has returned to hundreds of communities. Perhaps this is existent successful definite pockets, but insecurity successful Nigeria has a stubborn mode of reappearing adjacent aft evident victories. For those who cannot question acquainted roads without fearfulness oregon workplace their lands without looking implicit their shoulders, bid remains fragile.

Tinubu’s insistence that the tide has turned successful information is different portion of his gamble: to person Nigerians that things are measurably amended than they were 2 years ago.

He did not hide the youth, often the sharpest critics of government. Calling them Nigeria’s “greatest asset,” helium reeled retired initiatives: pupil loans done NELFUND, Credicorp loans for tiny businesses, YouthCred for NYSC members, and the iDICE programme for innovators. It was a deliberate effort to amusement restless young Nigerians that his medication is creating ladders for them to climb. But the standard of younker unemployment successful Nigeria is staggering, and fractional a cardinal students with loans, portion useful, is inactive a driblet successful the ocean. Tinubu’s situation volition beryllium to grow these interventions accelerated capable to marque a dent.

The governmental bosom of his message, however, was not successful the details but successful the declaration. “The worst is over,” helium said. That condemnation carries some anticipation and hazard. If ostentation eases, nutrient prices fall, and jobs unfastened up successful the adjacent 2 years, the enactment volition dependable prophetic, adjacent visionary. If hardship lingers, critics volition replay the words arsenic impervious of a president retired of interaction with reality. In that sense, Tinubu has raised the stakes for himself.

Optimism is simply a indispensable trait of leadership, but Nigerians are a sceptical audience. They person heard promises before. They volition request proof, not poetry.

Still, determination was honesty tucked wrong the rhetoric. Tinubu admitted that occurrence is not judged by statistic unsocial but by nutrient connected the table, energy successful homes, acquisition for children, and information successful communities.

That, much than the trillion-naira milestones, whitethorn beryllium what Nigerians volition retrieve from this speech. It was a reco...