The NHL's top regression candidates for 2025-26: Geekie, Scheifele, more

The NHL preseason is adjacent to finished, and the regular play is approaching connected Oct. 7.

Last season, determination were plentifulness of opportunities for regression, fixed what occurred during the 2023-24 season. Almost each subordinate successful last year's article regressed successful a meaningful way. Auston Matthews, Sam Reinhart, Jonathan Marchessault, Zach Hyman and the Vancouver Canucks regressed successful their ain important ways from the erstwhile season. That's not to accidental they won't bounce backmost this season.

Candidates for regression this play see those astir apt to spot a 10+% driblet successful production, beryllium it goals oregon points, based connected their situations. The biggest regression origin is shooting percentage; galore players featured connected this database changeable good implicit their expected paces. Other factors see players projected to beryllium successful antithetic situations, squad situation and elevated matchups.

Morgan Geekie

LW, Boston Bruins

Prior to past season, Morgan Geekie's vocation precocious successful shooting percent was 13%. His shooting percent successful 2024-2025? 22%!

Playing connected Boston's apical line, that led to a extremity full of 33, astir doubling his erstwhile vocation precocious of 17. Suffice to say, that is highly improbable to hap successful back-to-back seasons.

Geekie's extremity accumulation exploded, his relation accrued with the Bruins and helium saw his violative portion starts summation from 12.1% to 19.1%. According to MoneyPuck, his 5-on-5 on-ice goals percent was 58% against an expected percent of 52.7%. Given the authorities of the Bruins, it is tenable to expect those numbers to regress arsenic well.

If Geekie continues to play connected the apical line, it is tenable to expect his extremity full to beryllium successful enactment with a complementary subordinate connected a apical line, skating with an elite extremity scorer (David Pastrnak). That is to say, Geekie is much apt to full betwixt 22 and 26 goals, than helium is to deed 30 again.

He volition proceed to beryllium a cardinal portion for the Bruins, getting those top-line minutes, but with that comes much hard matchups. There is obscurity to "hide" erstwhile you play connected the apical line, helium volition person little clip and abstraction to maneuver, and it is just to expect a driblet successful extremity production.

Mark Scheifele

C, Winnipeg Jets

Scheifele's 2024-2025 play was incredible, notching 39 goals and 87 points. During the campaigns successful which helium tallied 38, 39 and 42 goals, his shooting percent was astir 20%, which is 3 percent points higher than his ...