The ALCS is set! Odds, X factors and how the Mariners and Blue Jays can reach the World Series

The 2025 American League Championship Series matchup is set!

Starting Sunday successful Toronto, the No. 2 effect Seattle Mariners and No. 1 effect Toronto Blue Jays volition clash with a travel to the World Series connected the line.

Seattle outlasted the Detroit Tigers successful a thrilling ALDS Game 5 connected Friday night, 2 days aft Toronto dispatched the AL East rival New York Yankees to get to the ALCS.

What has stood retired astir some teams truthful far? What does each broadside request to bash to punch a summons to the Fall Classic? And who are the X factors connected each roster? Our ESPN MLB experts interruption it each down.

Note: Matchup likelihood travel from Doolittle's look utilizing powerfulness ratings arsenic the ground for 10,000 simulations to find the astir apt outcomes. Team temperatures are based connected Bill James' look for determining however "hot" oregon "cold" a squad is astatine immoderate fixed point; mean is 72°.

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Seattle Mariners

At last! Super-fans of 1977 enlargement person been waiting for this LCS matchup since the aboriginal days of the Carter administration. The Blue Jays and Mariners came into beingness astatine the aforesaid clip but person ne'er met with stakes similar this successful play. The M's bushed the Jays successful a wild-card circular matchup successful 2022, but this is different.

The 2 strongest part champs successful the AL are vying to extremity agelong World Series droughts. Toronto hasn't won the rubric successful 31 years, and Seattle has ne'er won it.

The large Willie Horton was among the archetypal players to play for some franchises. Even though he's champion remembered arsenic a Tiger and has a statue extracurricular of Comerica Park, they should inactive fto him propulsion retired the archetypal transportation successful Seattle and Toronto. -- Bradford Doolittle

No. 1 effect Blue Jays' interest level: Appropriately alert. Toronto has the amended effect and home-field edge, but Seattle has been playing a tick amended successful the second stages of the season, and the tally differentials are virtually the same.

What's truly breathtaking is the prima powerfulness connected some teams and that the standouts person been shining successful October. Julio Rodriguez, Cal Raleigh and the scorching Vladimir Guerrero Jr. person played immense roles successful the teams getting this far.

Both teams person leaned connected the agelong shot for scoring, getting much than fractional their runs connected homers. It's a truly adjacent matchup that could beryllium decided by Andres Munoz, Seattle's borderline astatine the backmost of the bullpen. -- Doolittle

Toronto Blue Jays

Odds of advancing: 55.1%

Team temperature: 96°

What stood retired astir arsenic the Blue Jays rolled past the Yankees successful the ALDS?

Castillo: The relentlessness of their lineup. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. starred from commencement to finish, but Toronto received contributions from seemingly everyone manager John Schneider enactment successful there. Four players not named Guerrero recorded 2 hits successful Game 1. Daulton Varsho had 4 extra-base hits, and Ernie Clement went 3-for-4 successful Game 2. Clement added different 4 hits successful Game 3.

The Blue Jays were the toughest squad to onslaught retired during the regular season, and they registered much location runs than strikeouts successful the archetypal 2 games astatine Rogers Centre, wherever they've thrived each s...