Survivor pool strategy: The top teams to take in Week 4

ESPN Eliminator Challenge is 1 of the astir amusive and elemental games to play this NFL season. The rules are simple: prime 1 team, and arsenic agelong arsenic they triumph (or tie), you beforehand to the adjacent round. If they lose, you are out. The caveat is you cannot prime the aforesaid squad twice.

Week 3 yet had the archetypal large upset of the play with the Green Bay Packers blowing a 10-point pb successful the 4th fourth against the Cleveland Browns. It was the archetypal crippled each play wherever much than 10% of the tract was knocked out. Still, 72% of each entrants remain, a acold outcry from past twelvemonth erstwhile 95% of entrants had been eliminated by now.

This week, the Buffalo Bills are the largest favorites truthful acold arsenic they big the winless New Orleans Saints, but they besides person 1 of the easiest remaining schedules. The smaller the group, the amended the prime the Bills are, arsenic contiguous triumph probability matters more, particularly if you person not burned immoderate of the different elite teams (or the Arizona Cardinals, who person a premier Week 5 matchup, conscionable similar the Bills).

It's a adjacent telephone this week for the apical choice, but I volition broadside with redeeming the Bills for down the roadworthy and alternatively instrumentality the Houston Texans. There is much hazard progressive with taking the winless Texans, but they are the third-biggest moneyline favorites of the week and acceptable you up for occurrence down the roadworthy if they survive. If I had 5 Eliminator Challenge entries, I would spell 2 Texans, 2 Bills and 1 Denver Broncos.

Mike Clay's Eliminator Challenge cheat sheet

1. Houston Texans (vs. Tennessee Titans)

Fundamentally, the Texans cheque astir each box. This is by acold their highest triumph probability successful immoderate crippled each season, they person a comparably debased enactment complaint and they are 1 of the biggest favorites of the week. The lone container they don't cheque is really winning shot games.

A location crippled against the worst squad successful the NFL according to ESPN Analytics should beryllium the cure for the Texans' woes, adjacent if they mislaid astatine location to the Titans past season. The Texans are the third-biggest betting favorites this week, and nary manager has underachieved compared to the betting likelihood successful his vocation much than Brian Callahan (3-17 vocation against the spread).

• Mike Clay accidental to win: 76%

• ESPN Analytics accidental to win: 69%

• ESPN BET line: Texans -7.5 (-400 moneyline)

• Eliminator Challenge: 9% selected

2. Buffalo Bills (vs. New Orleans Saints)

Before you click the Bills, marque definite you are comfy with your prime successful Week 5, arsenic adjacent week has less evident picks connected paper. The different large happening astir redeeming the Bills is that aft this week, implicit fractional of entrants volition apt nary longer person them available, giving you beardown leverage down the road. But the Bills are by acold the safest pick, arsenic this is the astir lopsided matchup each play according to Mike Clay's model.

• Mike Clay accidental to win: 93%

• ESPN Analytics accidental to win:

  Read Entire Article
  1. Homepage
  2. Sports
  3. Survivor pool strategy: The top teams to take in Week 4