Survivor pool strategy: Packers, Broncos among top options in Week 6

ESPN Eliminator Challenge is 1 of the astir amusive games to play this NFL season. The rules are simple: prime 1 team, and arsenic agelong arsenic they triumph (or tie), you beforehand to the adjacent round. If they lose, you are out. The caveat is you cannot prime the aforesaid squad twice. If you've made it this far, springiness yourself a pat connected the back.

Week 5 yet featured the chaos Eliminator Challenge is typically known for. Three of the 5 biggest favorites mislaid past week, making it the archetypal clip since 2015 wherever 3 underdogs of astatine slightest 7 points mislaid outright. The Arizona Cardinals were the astir fashionable prime past week, and they blew a 15-point fourth-quarter lead, made much imaginable by Emari Demercado's aboriginal solemnisation conscionable earlier going successful for a touchdown, which resulted successful a fumble retired of the extremity zone.

The Cardinals were besides the apical prime successful this file past week. However, since this file utilized the Cardinals successful Week 2, we pivoted to the Detroit Lions, 1 of the fewer large favorites to really win.

Overall, determination were 9 upsets successful Week 5, the astir successful immoderate week since 2022. Those upsets knocked retired much than fractional of the remaining entries successful Eliminator Challenge, the astir eliminations successful immoderate week this season.

Spinning up to Week 6, determination is 1 evident enactment -- the Green Bay Packers hosting the Cincinnati Bengals. The Packers are the second-biggest favorites each season. That volition apt marque them the astir fashionable choice, but dissimilar the Buffalo Bills 2 weeks ago, determination is little inducement to prevention the Packers for later.

Mike Clay's Eliminator Challenge cheat sheet

1. Green Bay Packers (vs. Cincinnati Bengals)

This is the second-most-lopsided matchup the remainder of the play according to ESPN Analytics. While the Packers person 2 aboriginal matchups that basal retired successful Week 9 (vs. Panthers) and Week 11 (at Giants), they are importantly bigger favorites this week, particularly according to Mike Clay's model. Clay gives the Packers a 91% accidental to triumph this week, compared to 69% and 68% chances against the Panthers and Giants, respectively. While the Packers volition beryllium bully to prevention for those weeks, it's hard to find a amended spot for the Packers than astatine location disconnected a bye against 1 of the worst teams connected paper. Just expect them to beryllium much fashionable successful higher-stakes contests than they are arsenic of Tuesday (21%).

• Mike Clay accidental to win: 91%

• ESPN Analytics accidental to win: 81%

• ESPN BET line: Packers -14.5 (-1600 wealth line)

• Eliminator Challenge: 21% selected

2. Denver Broncos (vs. New York Jets successful London)

This is tied for the second-most-lopsided dispersed of the week, arsenic the Jets are the lone winless squad remaining successful the NFL this season. The large determination with Denver is which week bash you privation to usage them? They big the Giants adjacent week, the Cowboys successful Week 8, and they look the Raiders successful Weeks 10 and 14. The Broncos are a good prime this week, but they person akin aboriginal worth arsenic Green Bay, but they are overmuch smaller favorites to triumph this week.

• Mike Clay accidental to win: 86%

• ESPN...