Survivor pool strategy: Colts, Patriots among top options in Week 8

ESPN Eliminator Challenge is 1 of the astir amusive games to play this NFL season. The rules are simple: prime 1 team, and arsenic agelong arsenic they triumph (or tie), you beforehand to the adjacent round. If they lose, you are out. The caveat is you cannot prime the aforesaid squad twice. If you've made it this far, springiness yourself a pat connected the back.

The play of chalk deed its apex successful Week 7, arsenic 93% of remaining entries survived past week. There person lone been 5 upsets by astatine slightest six-point underdogs each season, the 2nd fewest done Week 7 successful the Super Bowl epoch (2005).

The worst teams successful the NFL person not been winning this season. Seven teams person separated from the battalion arsenic the worst teams successful the NFL: the Tennessee Titans, New York Jets, New Orleans Saints, Cleveland Browns, Cincinnati Bengals, Las Vegas Raiders and Miami Dolphins. There is simply a bigger spread betwixt the No. 25 and No. 26 teams than the No. 13 and No. 25 teams, according to ESPN Analytics.

The Titans fertile last, and they are the apical squad to slice successful Week 8. They sojourn the Indianapolis Colts, who are connected gait for the highest violative occurrence complaint by immoderate squad this century. The Colts are by acold the biggest favorites of the week, and there's small crushed to pivot elsewhere.

If you person utilized the Colts, it is simply a overmuch tougher choice, with the Patriots and Falcons getting a flimsy edge.

Mike Clay's Eliminator Challenge cheat sheet

1. Indianapolis Colts (vs. Tennessee Titans)

Not lone are the Colts the largest favorites this week, some Mike Clay and ESPN Analytics person this arsenic 1 of the 2 astir lopsided matchups the remainder of the season. They person lone 2 remaining games against teams beneath .500 (both vs. the Houston Texans), truthful their aboriginal worth is limited. Our 2 models springiness the Colts an 89% accidental to triumph this week, with nary different crippled supra 74%.

• ESPN Analytics accidental to win: 83%

• Mike Clay accidental to win: 96%

• ESPN BET line: Colts -14.5 (-1600 moneyline)

• Eliminator Challenge: 16% selected

2. New England Patriots (vs. Cleveland Browns)

Combining ESPN Analytics and Mike Clay's model, the Patriots are the second-biggest favorites this week. However, the Patriots inactive look the Jets doubly and the Dolphins astatine location successful Week 18, truthful determination should beryllium respective much opportunities to usage the Patriots. One bonus to utilizing New England present is that they are selected successful lone 5% of entries, but that is apt to rise.

• ESPN Analytics accidental to win: 68%

• Mike Clay accidental to win: 82%

• ESPN BET line: Patriots -6.5 (-400 moneyline)

• Eliminator Challenge: 5% selected

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