Should you bet on Miami QB Carson Beck for the Heisman?

Six weeks into the season, the Heisman contention looks thing similar it did successful August, the nationalist rubric committee is shifting but mostly stable, and 1 Big 12 squad mightiness beryllium a batch much unsafe than the marketplace realizes.

From Carson Beck's surge to favourite presumption to Ahmad Hardy's under-the-radar case, from Miami's dependable ascent toward playoff contention to wherefore Alabama's terms inactive doesn't marque sense, here's what the likelihood are telling america and wherever the existent betting edges inactive lie.

The biggest enactment moves for Heisman Trophy winner

Carson Beck, QB, Miami +600 Last week +1200

Six weeks of shot complete, six caller Heisman favorites. Beck is the caller favorite. He was connected my database astatine +2200 preseason but astatine +600, this would beryllium a nary for me.

There's partial merit, but it's much astir communicative and squad occurrence than earthy stats. Beck hasn't been statistically dominant, extracurricular the apical 50 nationally successful passing yards and conscionable 22nd successful touchdowns, but helium is starring an undefeated apical 5 Miami team, and is coming disconnected his champion show of the play (4 TD, 0 INT vs. Florida State).

In a twelvemonth without a runaway favorite, those ratio metrics paired with winning astatine a playoff-caliber programme are capable to warrant his surge to the apical of the Heisman board.

Ahmad Hardy, RB, Missouri +3000 Last week: +3500

Hardy is apical 15 successful the odds, truthful wherefore bring up a subordinate this acold down halfway into the season? Because immoderate players should conscionable beryllium recognized for their contributions. Hardy's likelihood person been improving each week, and portion it's improbable helium makes it to New York, there's existent merit to his rising Heisman odds. He's not conscionable producing measurement but elite, efficiency-driven interaction starring the federation successful rushing yards, 2nd successful rushing touchdowns, and owns the highest PFF rushing grade.

His operation of astir yards aft interaction and elite explosiveness (21 runs of 10+ yards, tied astir 15+ gait runs) shows he's some heavy relied connected arsenic a game-breaker. That blend of dominance, consistency and big-play quality is precisely what elevates a moving backmost into superior Heisman contention. Or astatine the least, keeps a squad that nary 1 is talking about, pushed into the spotlight erstwhile slightest expected.

On deck: an Alabama defence that ranks successful the bottommost 25 successful yards per unreserved and rushing scores allowed connected the roadworthy this season.

The biggest enactment determination for the nationalist title odds

Alabama +700