Revisiting every big transfer from this summer: Should our expectations be dialed back?

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  • Ryan O'HanlonSep 30, 2025, 06:56 AM ET

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      Ryan O'Hanlon is simply a unit writer for ESPN.com. He's besides the writer of "Net Gains: Inside the Beautiful Game's Analytics Revolution."

Not each large signing hits the crushed running.

Andy Robertson arrived astatine Liverpool from Hull City and spent the archetypal fewer months of the 2017-18 play sitting connected the seat portion Alberto Moreno ran up and down the near flank. A twelvemonth later, midfielder Fabinho was signed aboriginal successful the summertime but didn't play a azygous infinitesimal successful the Premier League until Oct. 20. Come May 2019, they were some starting successful Liverpool's Champions League last triumph implicit Tottenham. And, the pursuing season, some were stalwarts for the eventual Premier League champions.

As Liverpool won that league title, Manchester City struggled to find a replacement for their do-everything antiaircraft midfielder, Fernandinho. They had signed Rodri from Atlético Madrid, but helium didn't look up to the task of some progressing the shot aggressively and chopping down each absorption antagonistic attack. And who could blasted him? Reactive Atlético and proactive City were astatine other points connected the tactical spectrum. Four years later, Rodri has won the Ballon d'Or, the Champions League, and 4 Premier League titles.

If you'd judged immoderate of these transfers based connected their archetypal six matches, you would've missed retired connected arguably the champion near backmost successful Premier League history, a stalwart holding midfielder for 1 of the champion teams the league has ever seen, and a feline who was virtually voted arsenic the champion subordinate connected the satellite past year.

So, should we conscionable disregard everything we've seen truthful acold this season, then? Not quite! But we should astatine slightest cognize however to measurement it: not excessively harshly.

So, let's measure each of this past summer's transfers with that successful mind. No 1 is simply a bust. No 1 is simply a success. But if you had to marque insignificant adjustments to expectations utilizing the added grounds of the archetypal month-plus to the season, however would you bash it?

For this exercise, we went done each of the players who (A) permanently changed teams this summer, and (B) person estimated marketplace values connected Transfermarkt of €40 cardinal oregon more, past determined whether the expectations for that player's aboriginal occurrence with his caller squad should beryllium upgraded, downgraded, oregon maintained.


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Noni Madueke: Chelsea to Arsenal, €56 million

• Market value: €40 million
• Position: Right winger
• Age: 23

I loved this determination astatine the time. Arsenal were getting a pre-prime subordinate astatine the premium presumption successful the athletics for importantly little than importantly worse players moved for this aforesaid summer. He'd besides underperformed his expected goals (xG) and expected assists (xA) numbers past season, truthful determination was a accidental for some age-related and regression-related improvement.

At the aforesaid time, it was bizarre that Chelsea were letting him go, truthful possibly determination was thing incorrect we couldn't spot from the outside.

Although he's present injured, he'd been fantastic to commencement the play and gave Arsenal the screen for Read Entire Article