Ranking first-year WNBA coaches who have beaten -- or fallen short of -- expectations

How overmuch a manager wins oregon loses is of paramount value erstwhile evaluating their performance, but truthful is however they did comparative to expectations. Win much than oddsmakers projected you would? You should beryllium successful enactment for Coach of the Year consideration. Win less? Research suggests your spot is warming up.

(Incidentally, this is wherefore we often spot Coach of the Year winners seemingly transportation a "curse" successful consequent seasons: One year's astonishing overperformance sets the barroom of aboriginal expectations higher, portending backlash -- and sometimes dismissal -- erstwhile they spell unmet.)

The aforesaid applies to caller hires. While the jobs they instrumentality were mostly unfastened for a reason, the question isn't whether they would instantly contend for a title -- it's whether they could get much retired of their rosters than oddsmakers and pundits assumed successful the preseason.

That's wherefore we leveraged Elo forecasts to fertile the 7 first-year WNBA coaches by whether they are connected gait to pb their teams to much (or fewer) wins than ESPN BET had projected with preseason over/unders. As a bonus, we besides highlighted players who person played cardinal roles and are connected way to nutrient much Estimated RAPTOR wins than we would person expected based connected their established levels of caller performance. Because, rookie oregon not, apical coaches are the ones who coax the champion performances retired of their players.

1. Natalie Nakase, Golden State Valkyries

Preseason over/under wins: 8.5
Current triumph projection: 23.9
Difference: +15.4

Pleasant surprises: Veronica Burton (+5.1 wins); Temi Fagbenle (+2.4)

The favourite to triumph Coach of the Year, Nakase has done an unthinkable occupation molding unneurotic the WNBA's archetypal enlargement squad successful 17 years. The archetypal variation of the Valkyries are not conscionable acold much competitory than expected -- their preseason O/U full was a specified 8.5 wins! -- but they person clinched a playoff berth, which a first-year nine hasn't done since 1997, erstwhile each WNBA squad was technically successful its archetypal season.

Nakase's squad has leaned connected its defence successful particular, ranking 5th successful antiaircraft ratio and No. 1 successful fewest points allowed per game, portion yielding the league's lowest effectual FG% (47.2) by a comfy margin. (Related: Eight of the 12 qualified WNBA players allowing the fewest overgarment points per 100 possessions are Valkyries.)

Nakase's apical accomplishments astatine Golden State's helm see unlocking the imaginable of Burton, the erstwhile No. 7 prime successful the draught retired of Northwestern who struggled to find an expanded relation -- contempt bully per-minute numbers -- successful Dallas and Connecticut implicit her archetypal 3 seasons. Playing a career-high 29.3 MPG, Burton has emerged arsenic Golden State's champion subordinate and a two-way contributor who tin marque a quality successful a assortment of antithetic ways. She leads a ample radical of Valkyries who person performed overmuch amended than successful their erstwhile stops; of Golden State's 9 starring minute-earning veterans, 7 person an above-average RAPTOR standing and 7 are tracking to make much wins than their previously-established level of production.

This benignant of across-the-roster betterment is often the hallmark of large coaching.

2. Karl Smesko, Atlanta Dream

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