Raleigh over Judge for MVP? Rankings, predictions as MLB's award races hit final stretch

Just arsenic baseball's postseason pursuit has entered the agelong run, those vying for idiosyncratic honors are moving retired of clip to marque their cases.

This is our 4th and last Awards Watch of the regular season, and with that successful mind, we've changed up our accustomed format to constrictive the absorption of each contention to the starring contenders successful each category.

What races are each but decided? Which ones stay precise overmuch up successful the air? Let's excavation in.

Most Valuable Player

American League

Leading contenders: Aaron Judge, New York Yankees (153 AXE) vs. Cal Raleigh, Seattle Mariners (144)

Next eight: 3. Bobby Witt Jr., Kansas City Royals (142); 4. Jose Ramirez, Cleveland Guardians (135); 5. Julio Rodriguez, Mariners (132); 6. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Toronto Blue Jays (131); 7. Byron Buxton, Minnesota Twins (130); 8. Corey Seager, Texas Rangers (129); 9. (tie) Jeremy Pena, Houston Astros, Cody Bellinger, Yankees, Maikel Garcia, Royals (128)

ESPN BET apical two: Judge (-350, 78% accidental of winning), Raleigh (+200)

Sizing up the race: This contention is person than AXE and the likelihood suggest. In fact, it would not astonishment maine if they are incorrect altogether. Either way, the pursuit isn't over.

It shouldn't beryllium arguable to suggest that Judge has had the amended violative play contempt Raleigh's historical location tally gait and league-leading RBI total. His percentages are decidedly amended crossed the board, and adjacent if you contextualize for playing venue, Judge has a 40-point borderline successful OPS+ and, astatine FanGraphs, a 37-point bulge successful wRC+. Raleigh has played successful much games, but Judge has inactive created 31 much runs portion utilizing 68 less outs. Judge besides leads AL hitters successful some triumph probability added and title probability added. Raleigh ranks 5th successful some stats...