Projecting the CFP top 12 after Week 4: There's a new No. 1

1 month ago 27

Is the U back?!

It's been a minute.

With Miami's triumph against rival Florida connected Saturday night, the U -- winners of 5 titles betwixt 1983 and 2001 -- made a lawsuit to beryllium the apical squad successful the state erstwhile again.

This is simply a programme that hasn't won an ACC rubric since joining the league successful 2004, and present the Canes person positioned themselves arsenic not lone the apical playoff contender successful the conference, but besides arsenic the apical squad successful the country. It's inactive early, but connection wins are hard to travel by, and Miami's corporate résumé present includes wins against Notre Dame, a ranked South Florida and rival Florida.

The 13-member College Football Playoff enactment committee doesn't merchandise its archetypal ranking until Nov. 4, but based connected what each squad has done to-date, Miami's 1 of the fewer teams that has looked similar the full package.

The database beneath is fluid -- and volition proceed to beryllium aboriginal successful the season. Here's the latest prediction of what the enactment committee's apical 12 would look similar if it were released today.

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Projecting the apical 12

1. Miami Hurricanes (4-0)

Why they could beryllium here: With wins against Notre Dame, South Florida and present rival Florida, Miami has the champion operation of oculus trial and résumé. It didn't travel casual against the Gators, but Miami's defence was stifling for the bulk of the game. The enactment committee considers the intangibles that travel a rivalry game, and would admit the trouble of the win, adjacent though Florida is struggling this year. As talented arsenic Ohio State is, Miami present has a stronger case, fixed the Buckeyes' champion triumph was against a Texas squad that has since fallen retired of the projected apical 12. Miami has cemented itself arsenic the ACC's apical playoff contender -- astatine slightest until it's decided connected the tract connected Oct. 4 against Florida State.

Why they could beryllium lower: If the committee were to fertile Ohio State No. 1 astatine this point, it would simply beryllium due to the fact that immoderate members deliberation the Buckeyes are much talented.

Need to know: Miami has the champion accidental of immoderate Power 4 squad successful the state to triumph retired (19.3%), according to ESPN Analytics.

Toughest remaining game: Oct. 4 astatine Florida State. ESPN's FPI gives Miami a 66.1% accidental to win.

2. Ohio State Buckeyes (3-0)

Why they could beryllium here: The enactment committee doesn't typically determination teams if they don't play, unless determination is question astir them -- and Miami's résumé bumped the Canes to the apical spot this week. Ohio State's season-opening triumph against Texas is inactive 1 of the champion nonconference wins of the season, but that's each the Buckeyes person astatine the moment. A triumph against Ohio and a 70-0 drubbing of FCS Grambling won't impressment the committee. A triumph against Texas will, but however overmuch the committee values it connected Selection Day depends connected however the Longhorns fare each season.

Why they could beryllium higher: If the committee has the Buckeyes astatine No. 1, it's going to beryllium by a paper-thin margin. Statistically, some Ohio State and Miami entered the week astir dead-even successful each 3 phases of the game.

Need to know: According to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, Ohio State entered this week tied with Georgia and Oregon for the champion accidental successful the state to scope the CFP (77%).

Toughest remaining game: Nov. 1 vs. Penn State. ESPN's FPI gives the Buckeyes a 64.9% accidental to win.