NFL Week 3 best bets: Why Cowboys-Bears could be a track meet

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  • Matt Bowen

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    Matt Bowen

    ESPN Writer

      Matt Bowen is simply a phantasy shot and NFL writer for ESPN. He joined ESPN successful 2015, writes regularly for ESPN+ and spent aggregate years connected "NFL Matchup." After graduating from the University of Iowa, Matt played information successful the NFL for St. Louis, Green Bay, Washington and Buffalo implicit 7 seasons.
  • Seth Walder

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    Seth Walder

    ESPN Analytics

      Seth Walder is an analytics writer astatine ESPN, specializing successful quantitative analysis. He is besides a regular connected "ESPN Bet Live" and helps screen sports betting. Seth has been astatine ESPN since 2017. He antecedently worked astatine the New York Daily News covering the Jets and Giants. You tin travel Seth connected X via @SethWalder.

Sep 19, 2025, 01:30 PM ET

Value is value, nary substance wherever -- oregon however -- you find it. And that's what we'll purpose to bash each week successful this abstraction -- find value.

Ben Solak is retired this week, truthful Matt Bowen is filling successful with his ain unsocial style.

Bowen and Seth Walder bring antithetic perspectives into however they attack sports betting. A erstwhile NFL safety, Bowen predicts affirmative matchups and crippled winners from portion survey and his knowing of the league. Walder relies connected statistical models to prime retired plus-expected worth bets.

These play picks volition not beryllium constricted to a definite stake type. From spreads and wealth lines to totals oregon adjacent antiaircraft subordinate props, a bully terms mightiness beryllium recovered anywhere.

Results volition beryllium tracked passim the season, with level one-unit wagers for each listed bet. As always, likelihood are from ESPN BET Sportsbook.

With that, let's dive into Week 3.

Note: Walder's antiaircraft prop bets volition beryllium added arsenic they go available.

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Game bets | Offensive props

Game bets

Dallas Cowboys astatine Chicago Bears full points OVER 50.5 (-115)

The Dallas defence lacks interaction players. You tin spot that connected the tape. And I'm looking astatine a Bears portion that is struggling to find a walk rush, portion injuries are already pilling up astatine the 2nd and 3rd level. Through 2 weeks, Dallas is allowing 6.4 yards per play (29th successful the league), with Chicago checking successful astatine 7.2 (31st), and some defenses are giving up implicit 30 points per game. Bad football. Dallas volition person pass-game matchups to exploit successful this one, and I wouldn't beryllium amazed if Caleb Williams posts his champion numbers of the play connected Sunday astatine Soldier Field. Take the over. -- Bowen

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