Latest CFP, bowl projections: Fallout from another wild weekend

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  • Kyle Bonagura

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    Kyle Bonagura

    ESPN Staff Writer

    • Covers assemblage football.
    • Joined ESPN successful 2014.
    • Attended Washington State University.
  • Mark Schlabach

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    Mark Schlabach

    ESPN Senior Writer

    • Senior assemblage shot writer
    • Author of 7 books connected assemblage football
    • Graduate of the University of Georgia

Sep 14, 2025, 12:00 PM ET

Three weeks into the season, the assemblage shot scenery has seen its stock of tumultuous results.

Two teams adjacent the apical of astir preseason playoff projections -- Notre Dame and Clemson -- already person 2 losses, placing the Irish and Tigers connected highly shaky ground. The SEC looks arsenic heavy and beardown arsenic ever based connected its nonconference record, meaning astir of the in-league matchups volition beryllium up for grabs and person important ramifications.

As successful past season's inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff, the 5 highest-ranked league champions, positive the adjacent 7 highest-ranked teams, volition marque the field. Unlike past year, the 4 highest-ranked teams (not needfully league champions) volition beryllium awarded first-round byes. The different 8 teams volition conscionable successful first-round games astatine the field sites of seeds Nos. 5 done 8.

From there, the quarterfinals and semifinals volition beryllium played successful what had been the New Year's Six bowls, with this season's nationalist title crippled scheduled for Jan. 19 astatine Hard Rock Stadium successful Miami.

All of that is conscionable the extremity of the iceberg, though. Apart from the playoff is the 35-game slate of vessel games, opening with the Cricket Celebration Bowl connected Dec. 13.

We're present for each of it.

ESPN vessel gurus Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach are projecting each postseason matchup, including their breakdowns of however the playoff volition play out, and we'll beryllium backmost each week of the play until the existent matchups are set.

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Playoff picks | Quarterfinals
Semis, rubric game | Bowl season

College Football Playoff

First-round games (at field sites)

Friday, Dec. 19/Saturday, Dec. 20

Times and networks TBD.

Bonagura: No. 12 South Florida astatine No. 5 LSU
Schlabach: No. 12 Tulane astatine No. 5 Oregon

Bonagura: No. 11 Utah astatine No. 6 Miami
Schlabach: No. 11 Utah astatine No. 6 Penn State

Bonagura: No. 10 Oklahoma astatine No. 7 Florida State
Schlabach: No. 10 Illinois astatine No. 7 Florida State

Bonagura: No. 9 Texas astatine No. 8 Illinois
Schlabach: No. 9 Texas A&M astatine No. 8 Oklahoma

First-round breakdown

Bonagura: After South Florida began the play with a brace of ranked wins, it came backmost to world connected Saturday with a 49-12 nonaccomplishment to Miami. Despite that loss, I kept the Bulls successful the coveted No. 12 spot, which projects arsenic the apt placement for the top-ranked Group of 5 team. The logic was this: losing to Miami -- a squad that has a beardown lawsuit for a first-round bye -- shouldn't beryllium crushed to automatically autumn retired for a squad ranked good beneath them. How the Bulls played, though, was concerning, and Tulane received beardown consideration.

Iowa State, however, did driblet from my playoff tract aft a constrictive triumph against Arkansas State. The Cyclones are 4-0 but haven't turned successful a afloat broad triumph each twelvemonth (at slightest against an FBS team).

Schlabach: The apical 2 teams successful my bracket, Ohio State and LSU, stay unchanged, but determination was rather a spot of shuffling aft that. Texas, Notre Dame, Iowa State and South Florida fell retired of my 12-team bracket, portion Texas A&M, Illinois, Utah and Tulane moved in.

Texas ...

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