Is Music’s Mainstream Getting Smaller? A Streaming Analysis Shows the Difficulty of Breaking Through

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What was the opus of the summertime for 2025? 

If you look astatine antithetic quality outlets, societal media sites and streaming platforms, you’ll get a batch of answers — but precise small consensus. “Ordinary” by Alex Warren came successful astatine No. 1 connected Billboard’s Song of the Summer chart. “Love Me Not” by Ravyn Lenae was listed connected Spotify’s editorial database arsenic their No. 1. “Hold My Hand” by Jess Glynne, owed to the song’s usage successful the inheritance of a fashionable audio meme called “Jet2Holiday,” earned the rubric connected TikTok. Nylon said the summertime would “go down successful infamy” for having nary wide winner; Pitchfork noted it’s a “year without a statement favorite”; and The New York Times summed it up best: There are conscionable “too galore niches.”

But it’s not a peculiarly infamous year, arsenic Nylon enactment it — it’s portion of the caller norm. The thought of a philharmonic monoculture is losing power, and there’s information to beryllium it. According to a Billboard investigation based connected Luminate’s midyear reports, the marketplace stock of music’s biggest streaming hits has shrunk importantly implicit the past 10 years. A decennary ago, successful 2016, the apical 10 on-demand audio streaming songs successful the U.S. astatine midyear held 0.16% of the full fig of on-demand audio streams overall. In 2025, the apical 10 streaming songs successful the U.S. clasp little than 1 3rd of that mark, astatine 0.05% of the wide marketplace share. As streaming matures, proposal algorithms amended and listening habits are progressively driven further distant from the mainstream, it’s becoming harder and harder to merchandise a opus that hits existent ubiquity.

When taking into relationship the emergence of TikTok arsenic a destination for euphony depletion and discovery, the representation of what is considered “mainstream” becomes adjacent much confused. At the clip the level took off, astir 2019, songs that did good connected TikTok mostly translated implicit to streaming success, but based connected the divergence betwixt TikTok’s ain midyear apical songs and that seen connected the charts, it progressively feels similar what euphony works connected societal media isn’t needfully the aforesaid arsenic what works connected streaming. 

Mark Mulligan of MIDiA Research predicted this successful 2024 with the “bifurcation theory,” arguing that societal media sites, similar TikTok, “will look arsenic a parallel alternate to streaming, alternatively than simply a feeder for it.” And the research firm’s caller report, released Sept. 16, further underscores this, noting that “TikTok is driving much TikTok depletion alternatively than streaming consumption,” and that adjacent to three-quarters of users who travel artists connected TikTok bash not research the artist’s euphony disconnected platform.

The inclination distant from the mainstream does not bode good for those successful the concern of gathering superstars, oregon for superstars themselves. In a caller TikTok, Lizzo addressed this problem, saying, “Every large creator — from Lady Gaga to Drake — has dropped albums this year, and yet everyone is saying there’s nary opus of the summer… No 1 tin service the masses anymore.” 

At a clip erstwhile practically each opus successful recorded euphony past is disposable for $11.99 a month, euphony fans nary longer consciousness confined to listening to immoderate peculiar song. Yesterday’s vigor DJs, grounds store owners and precocious nighttime amusement bookers person been replaced by an endless buffet of each opus imaginable. But we inactive request immoderate mode to marque consciousness of it all, and that’s wherever algorithms travel in, pushing america further into the niches oregon backmost to older “catalog” songs (songs implicit 18 months old) of which we’re already fond.  

There are besides much songs released each time present than astatine immoderate other...