Introducing ESPN's Basketball Power Index for 2025-2026: Predictions for 23 NBA teams

Coming into NBA grooming camp, optimism abounds. Staffers and players are excited. Seemingly everyone has had the champion summertime of their lives. It takes a batch much than a preseason nonaccomplishment to dampen anyone's spirits.

No, dampening spirits is what happens erstwhile a squad gets punked successful the regular season.

Or possibly erstwhile BPI -- ESPN's Basketball Power Index -- says a squad might not triumph rather arsenic overmuch arsenic each the optimism suggests.

This year, BPI's win-total predictions aren't radically antithetic from what Las Vegas projects, truthful we're going to hint you successful connected what Vegas doesn't truly archer you -- things specified arsenic the chances your squad volition gets a top-six effect successful the playoffs, its likelihood of making the Finals, and possibly adjacent the reason.

From the No. 1 team, the Oklahoma City Thunder, down to a fewer squads ranked successful the 20s, here's what BPI forecasts. The implicit acceptable of numbers is present and updated regular during the season.

BPI's apical six successful the Western Conference

No. 1 Oklahoma City Thunder (No. 1 overall)

OKC has a 98% accidental of earning a top-four seed. For perspective, that's similar having an eight-point pb with 2 minutes near successful a game.

I'm not definite whether radical recognize however heavy OKC is. Last season, the nett points metric we usage to measure players was affirmative for everyone successful the Thunder's rotation and a mates of guys extracurricular of their rotation -- 12 squad members successful total. In contrast, the Thunder's Finals' opponents, the Pacers, had conscionable 5 players affirmative successful the regular season.

No. 2 Denver Nuggets (No. 3)

The Nuggets person a 67% accidental of earning a top-four seed, which brings home-court vantage successful the archetypal circular of the playoffs.

The spread betwixt the Nuggets' starters and their seat was the biggest successful the NBA past season. The starters added 7.6 points to their scoring borderline per game, and the seat took distant 3.8. That signifier has been existent for years. But this past summer, the nett points metric suggests the squad improved -- from Michael Porter Jr. to Cam Johnson, from Russell Westbrook to Tim Hardaway Jr., and from DeAndre Jordan to Jonas Valanciunas.

No. 3 Houston Rockets (No. 4)

Houston has a 49% accidental to instrumentality a top-three seed.

This accounts for Fred VanVleet's season-ending injury, but BPI sees beauteous bully extent to compensate. The nett points metric had these Rockets arsenic the bottommost 4 players connected the roster past season: Cam Whitmore, Dillon Brooks, Jalen Green and Reed Sheppard. Of those, lone the second-year constituent defender Sheppard returns.

Oh, and they got Kevin Durant.

No. 4 LA Clippers (No. 6)

The Clippers person a 21% accidental of progressing to the Western Conference finals, little than they'd similar with each their veterans.

The Clippers are the oldest squad successful the NBA heading into the season, with 8 of their rotation players implicit 30: Nic Batum, Read Entire Article