IMF upgrades Nigeria’s 2025 economic growth forecast to 3.9%

…Cites stronger home fundamentals

…Calls for credible fiscal and monetary policies

By Babajide Komolafe, Economy Editor  and Emma Ujah, Abuja Bureau Chief

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised Nigeria’s economical maturation outlook upward to 3.9 per cent , citing stronger home fundamentals and improving capitalist confidence, arsenic good arsenic moderated interaction of planetary tariff war.

The outlook represents a 0.5 percent constituent summation from the IMF’s July 2025 update and astir 1 percent constituent higher than earlier April forecasts.

Disclosing this successful its October 2025 World Economic Outlook (WEO) titled “Global Economy successful Flux”, the IMF projected that Nigeria’s existent Gross Domestic Product (GDP) volition turn by 3.9 percent successful 2025, somewhat little than the 4.1 percent recorded successful 2024, but expected to accelerate to 4.2 percent successful 2026.

The IMF attributed Nigeria’s maturation resilience to higher lipid production, a much supportive fiscal stance, and improving capitalist sentiment. The study noted that reforms successful the vigor and fiscal sectors person begun to pull renewed superior inflows, portion speech complaint adjustments person improved transparency successful the overseas speech market.

The Fund besides observed that Nigeria’s system is little exposed to the planetary tariff wars triggered by caller U.S. commercialized measures, which person weakened maturation prospects successful galore precocious economies.

Despite the maturation optimism, ostentation remains elevated. The IMF forecasts that Nigeria’s mean user prices volition diminution from 31.4 percent successful 2024 to 23.0 percent successful 2025, and further to 22.0 percent successful 2026.

End-of-period ostentation is projected astatine 21 percent successful 2025 and 18 percent successful 2026, reflecting dilatory disinflation amid persistent nutrient and vigor terms pressures.

External Position and Data Revisions

Nigeria’s existent relationship surplus is expected to constrictive from 6.8 percent of GDP successful 2024 to 5.7 percent successful 2025, and further to 3.6 percent successful 2026, arsenic higher imports offset lipid export gains.

The IMF noted that the projections incorporated a large rebasing of Nigeria’s nationalist accounts, with 2019 adopted arsenic the caller basal year. The revised information present seizure antecedently underreported sectors, including the integer economy, informal agriculture, and modular refining activities — raising nominal GDP by implicit 40 percent.

While welcoming the upward revision, the IMF urged Nigeria to prolong credible fiscal and monetary policies, fortify organization frameworks, and accelerate reforms to entrench macroeconomic stableness and inclusive growth.

Speaking connected Nigeria’s Growth Outlook, Denz Igan, astatine the property briefing connected the WEO, Division Chief, Research Department, IMF, said: “For 2025, we person revised Nigeria’s maturation complaint upward to 3.9 percent, which is 0.5 percent constituent higher than our erstwhile projection. We person besides upgraded the 2026 forecast by 0.9 percent point, to 4.2 percent.

“Looking back, the 2024 GDP maturation estimation has been revised upward to 4.1 percent, 0.7 percent constituent higher than earlier figures. This reflects the authorities’ GDP revision and rebasing exercise, which provides broader sum of economical activity, including parts of the informal assemblage antecedently not captured.

“For 2025 and 2026, the upward revisions chiefly bespeak reduced uncertainty and Nigeria’s constricted vulnerability to U.S. tariffs, fixed its comparatively debased dependence connected planetary trade. Since July, we’ve besides seen speech complaint appreciation, stronger fiscal conditions supported by rising capitalist confidence, and a supportive fiscal stance.

“In addition, hydrocarbon maturation has been revised upward owed to higher lipid accumulation and improved information successful producing areas. Together, these factors lend to a much affirmative outlook for Nigeria’s economy.”

The station IMF upgrades Nigeria’s 2025 economical maturation forecast to 3.9% appeared archetypal connected Vanguard News.