How shocking upsets and near misses of Week 6 impact conference, CFP races

On Oct. 26, 1985, UTEP pulled 1 of the biggest upsets successful WAC history, holding BYU's Robbie Bosco to 15-for-35 passing with 4 interceptions and upsetting the No. 7 Cougars -- the defending nationalist champions -- successful a 23-16 shocker. BYU had won 30 of its erstwhile 31 games heading into the game, and UTEP had begun the play 0-6.

Until Saturday, that was the past clip a squad that was 0-4 oregon worse had knocked disconnected a top-10 opponent. But astir 40 years aft that chaotic upset astatine the Sun Bowl, a sparse Rose Bowl assemblage witnessed an upset of akin circumstance. UCLA's 42-37 triumph implicit Penn State was the astir stunning effect of the 2025 play to date, and combined with Florida's 29-21 triumph implicit Texas successful The Swamp -- a overmuch much normal upset, arsenic acold arsenic those things spell -- it severely wounded the College Football Playoff likelihood of what were the apical 2 teams successful the preseason AP poll

The remainder of Week 6 was much astir missed upset opportunities than shockers, but taking down the preseason apical 2 is rather the paradigm shifter. Let's look backmost astatine the astir important developments of Week 6.

The biggest upset successful 40 years (by 1 definition, astatine least)

UCLA 42, No. 7 Penn State 37

Each week successful my Friday preview column, I hunt for what I telephone the Chaos Superfecta, successful which I look for 4 cautiously curated games with beauteous large constituent spreads and mash them unneurotic into a overmuch much upset-friendly number. This past Friday, I declared that we would beryllium taking down a Big Ten favorite, noting that determination was lone a 55% accidental that Ohio State, Michigan, Illinois and Nebraska each would win. As it turns out, I wasn't aiming precocious enough. UCLA's pregame triumph probability, per SP+, was 2.1%; the Bruins' upset was really too chaotic to beryllium considered for the Chaos Superfecta.

We cognize how immense upsets thin to play out. The losing favourite turns the shot implicit excessively galore times (usually with a steadfast dose of atrocious luck), settles for excessively galore tract goals and bottoms retired connected 3rd oregon 4th down. They triumph a bulk of the plays but suffer the incorrect ones.

Penn State did suffer a fumble to commencement the 2nd half, and the Nittany Lions' combined 5-for-12 show connected 3rd and 4th down wasn't unspeakable but wasn't astonishing either. But the Nittany Lions produced a 52.6% occurrence rate*, good supra the nationalist mean of 44.8%, and they averaged a steadfast 6.3 yards per play.

(* Success rate: How often an discourtesy is gaining 50% of indispensable yardage connected archetypal down, 70% connected 2nd and 100% connected 3rd and fourth.)

Drew Allar, truthful maligned for big-game performances done the years, was rather good, completing 19 of 26 passes for 200 yards and rushing 10 times (not including 1 sack) for 89 yards. Aside from an aboriginal three-and-out, PSU moved the shot good each crippled until an all-timer of a fourth-and-short halt by UCLA's defence successful the last minute.

The culprit, instead, was a Penn State defence that has been arsenic bully arsenic virtually immoderate successful the federation implicit the past 4 seasons.

Since the commencement of 2022, lone 5 teams person gained astatine slightest 430 yards connected the Nittany Lions: No. 5 Michigan and No. 2 Ohio State successful 2022, No. 11 Ole Miss successful 2023, No. 1 Oregon successful 2024 ... and UCLA connected Saturday. That's the aforesaid UCLA squad that gained conscionable 326 yards connected New Mexico successful Week 3 and 220 against Utah successful its play opener.

Well, I conjecture it wasn't the same UCLA. This 1 had Jerry Neuheisel calling plays aft violative coordinator Tino Sunseri followed fired caput manager DeShaun Foster retired the doorway this past week. Neuheisel's announcement was abbreviated capable that helium hadn't adjacent mastered the headset yet.

UCLA OC Jerry Neuheisel had ne'er practiced wit...