Expert picks, best bets: Can Brazilian Charles Oliveira stay unbeaten in his home country?

3 weeks ago 3

Charles Oliveira is backmost warring his six UFC bout successful his location state of Brazil this Saturday. Ed Mulholland/Zuffa LLC

ESPN Staff

Oct 9, 2025, 08:43 AM ET

Former UFC lightweight champion Charles Oliveira faces chap ranked contender Mateusz Gamrot successful the main lawsuit of UFC Fight Night successful Rio de Janeiro connected Saturday (7 p.m. ET connected ESPN+, prelims astatine 4 p.m. ET).

Oliveira (35-11, 1 NC) past fought successful June successful an unsuccessful bid to regain the title, losing to Ilia Topuria by first-round knockout. Oliveira, a Brazilian who has yet to suffer successful 5 erstwhile UFC bouts successful his location country, is No. 3 successful the ESPN lightweight rankings.

The ninth-ranked Gamrot (25-3, 1 NC) has won 4 of his past 5 fights, astir precocious a unanimous determination implicit Ludovit Klein successful May.

ESPN MMA analysts Din Thomas and Anthony Smith supply their main lawsuit predictions, and ESPN betting adept Ian Parker adds penetration connected the worth bets disposable connected the combat card.

Lightweight main event

Oliveira is simply a large hostile for Gamrot. With Gamrot's gait and grappling abilities, this is simply a bully matchup for him, due to the fact that I don't deliberation he's going to get submitted. So, helium tin enforce his will, wrestle, enactment retired of occupation and deterioration Oliveira down for a decision. -- Din Thomas

I cognize comparing communal opponents doesn't ever work, but Gamrot bushed Arman Tsarukyan and Oliveira mislaid to Tsarukyan, who is the amended wrestler. Oliveira has ne'er been a feline who stops each takedown, and Gamrot has large counter-grappling. Gamrot is capable to scramble and enactment retired of trouble. If helium weren't capable to instrumentality Oliveira down, this would beryllium a antithetic story, due to the fact that I deliberation Gamrot would suffer connected the feet. But Oliveira won't beryllium capable to halt Gamrot's wrestling, and Gamrot volition enactment retired of submission attempts and conscionable outgrapple Oliveira. -- Anthony Smith

Betting analysis

Odds close arsenic of Oct. 9. For the astir up-to-date odds, sojourn ESPN BET.

Parker: Gamrot to triumph (-105) Stepping up connected abbreviated notice, Gamrot is getting a career-changing accidental against Oliveira successful a Fight Night main event. Gamrot has the wrestling and gait to stifle and frustrate Oliveira, if helium tin get the combat to the crushed aboriginal and often. On the feet, Oliveira is the amended striker and carries knockout power, but coming disconnected a KO nonaccomplishment successful June, I americium not definite his chin tin grip overmuch more. Oliveira is simply a submission ace, but helium doesn't usually get submissions disconnected his back, and that's wherever I expect him to beryllium for the bulk of this fight. I americium taking Gamrot to people an upset.