Buy the dip: Thirteen players primed for bounce-back seasons

Fantasy hockey is each astir trends and timing, and 1 of the trickiest patterns to navigate is the mid-career oregon late-career slump. Understanding which dips are impermanent versus existent declines tin marque the quality betwixt holding a subordinate and cutting them excessively soon.

To research this, we examined humanities information going backmost to 2009-10 to place players who dropped importantly successful phantasy points per crippled (FPPG) but aboriginal returned to their vocation norms. The patterns uncover some cautionary tales for veterans and anticipation for younger players presently successful a rut.

Jump to: Forwards | Defensemen

Forwards

For forwards, determination person been 71 times since 2009-10 that a phantasy applicable subordinate (career FPPG of 1.7 oregon better) has finished a play with an FPPG driblet of astatine slightest 0.35, lone to aboriginal retrieve to their vocation mean successful a consequent season. That's immoderate coagulated precedent to connection anticipation to immoderate subordinate presently successful a dip for production.

Not surprisingly, a whopping 15 of those bounce backs occurred successful the 2021-22 play -- astir arsenic if thing outer forced much players to conflict during the 2021 season. The remainders are dispersed retired crossed the remaining 16 seasons of data, ranging from 8 bounce backs successful each of 2017-18 and 2022-23, to 1 each successful 2014-15 and 2016-17.

A caller nickname enactment for Matt Duchene could beryllium Capt. Yo-Yo, arsenic helium individually represents 5 of the 71 bounce backmost campaigns, with 0.35 FPPG dips lone for a betterment successful aboriginal seasons in: 2011-12, 2014-15, 2016-17, 2019-20 and 2022-23. Evgeni Malkin has four, but nary different subordinate is represented much than twice.

All of this is to accidental that the reasons for the dip and betterment are astir apt not the aforesaid for immoderate of the 71 instances, adjacent by the aforesaid player. Injury, linemates, deployments, squad structure, coaching, comfort, focus, fatigue ... the database of variables and combinations of them is endless.

But that doesn't mean the information isn't useful. Perhaps archetypal and foremost, we tin instrumentality the mean property of the players successful the play for which they managed to bounce back. It's not bully quality for the veterans.

The mean property successful those seasons of betterment for forwards is 29 years, 68 days old. Which tells america that astir of the fading stars aren't successful a dip, conscionable a decline. Examples of existent ruts for older players include:

• Steven Stamkos, Nashville Predators (age 35.6, vocation FPPG: 2.42, past season: 1.66)

• Evgeni Malkin, Pittsburgh Penguins (age 39.1, vocation FPPG: 2.26, past season: 1.67)

• Patrick Kane, Detroit Red Wings (age 36.8, vocation FPPG: 2.10, past season: 1.74)

• Jamie Benn, Dallas Stars (age 36.2, vocation FPPG: 2.01, past season: 1.47)

• Claude Giroux, Ottawa Senators (age 37.7, vocation FPPG: 1.90, past season: 1.42)

• Taylor Hall,

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