Business Confidence Index Rises As Agriculture Rebounds

The NESG–Stanbic IBTC Business Confidence Monitor (BCM) study has revealed that businesses successful Nigeria sustained a affirmative trajectory successful September 2025 arsenic the agriculture assemblage rebounded.

The study showed a marginal emergence to 107.9 points, up from 107.3 successful August 2025. This betterment reflects sectoral dynamics, notably a rebound successful Agriculture, supported by the harvest season, and dependable enactment successful the Services sector.

A sectoral reappraisal confirmed that each 5 broader economical activities stayed successful the enlargement zone. Agriculture posted the strongest recovery, rising sharply to 107.3 from a contractionary 95.6 successful August, portion non-manufacturing (114.5), Trade (107.6), and Manufacturing (102.5) each expanded, albeit astatine a slower gait compared to August.
The study pointed retired that “key BCM sub-indices, specified arsenic investment, exports, entree to credit, and prices, registered marginal gains comparative to August 2025, pointing to improving sentiment successful superior enactment and outer trade.
“Importantly, caller improvements successful the outgo of doing concern and input prices suggest a gradual moderation of inflationary pressures connected firms. However, this affirmative inclination remains fragile, arsenic financing constraints, erratic energy supply, precocious commercialized spot costs, unclear argumentation signals, and persistent insecurity undermine concern assurance and concern appetite.”

Stanbic IBTC stated that “the existent concern show of Nigerian businesses improved somewhat successful September comparative to August, buoyed by some the Agriculture assemblage and Services, some of which neutralised the humble enactment softening successful Manufacturing, Non-manufacturing, and Trade sectors.”

According to the company, a breakdown of the components of the existent concern show shows an betterment successful the wide concern situation, a higher level of demand, improved employment conditions and greater entree to recognition comparative to the anterior month.

“Besides, the outgo of doing concern has declined for the 3rd consecutive month, portion the terms scale has remained beneath the 100 scale points intelligence threshold since November 2024, implying underlying terms pressures are moderating. This is unsurprising arsenic substance outgo and speech complaint pressures, which negatively impacted prices successful 2024, person seen constricted terms movements successful 2025.”

It noted that the speech complaint appreciated by 5.5 per cent year-to-date arsenic of October 2, 2025, comparative to a 40.9 per cent depreciation successful 2024, and substance outgo declined by 13.8 per cent successful the archetypal 7 months of 2025 comparative to a 77.0 per cent terms summation successful 2024.

Stanbic IBTC stated, “We estimation that the lipid and non-oil sectors whitethorn person grown by 14.3 per cent year-on-year and 4.4 per cent year-on-year, respectively, translating into wide GDP maturation of 4.5 per cent year-on-year successful Q3 2025. We present assistance our 2025 maturation forecast to 4.0 per cent Y-o-Y, from 3.5 per cent Y-o-Y, aft afloat accounting for the interaction of GDP rebasing, and aft amazingly bully Q2:25 GDP growth.”

Going into 2026, it said, “the non-oil sector’s maturation should stay beardown amid a apt simplification successful involvement rates and debased inflation, some of which should enactment aggregate request and backstage investment.