Bubble Watch: What we've learned through Week 2

The College Football Playoff enactment committee members volition archer you they don't fertile conferences -- they fertile teams -- but the Big Ten and SEC are starring the mode successful nonconference wins that volition interaction the committee's rankings done Selection Day.

According to ESPN Research, the SEC enters Week 3 with a 27-3 nonconference grounds (8-2 against Power 4 opponents), portion the Big Ten is 31-5 (5-3 against Power 4 opponents). The Big 12 is 24-8 but 5-6 against Power 4, and the ACC is 22-10 but 3-9 against Power 4 teams.

Those results interaction the pursuing conference-by-conference playoff breakdown -- listed successful bid of who is projected to person the astir teams successful the 12-team field.

Below you'll find 1 squad successful the spotlight for each Power 4 league, and different identified arsenic an enigma. We've besides tiered schools into 3 groups. Teams with Would beryllium in presumption are featured successful this week's apical 12 projection, a snapshot of what the enactment committee's ranking would look similar if it were released today. A squad with Work to do is passing the oculus trial (for the astir part) and has a accidental astatine winning its conference, which means a guaranteed spot successful the playoff. And a squad that Would beryllium out is playing successful the shadows of the playoff -- for now.

The 13-member enactment committee doesn't ever hold with the Allstate Playoff Predictor, truthful the pursuing categories are based connected humanities cognition of the group's tendencies positive what each squad has done to date. Mississippi State, for example, conscionable earned a large nonconference triumph against Arizona State, truthful portion the Bulldogs astir apt aren't acceptable for the CFP yet, they're inactive listed nether Work to do to relationship for the upward trajectory that triumph provides early.

Reminder: This volition alteration week-to-week arsenic each squad builds -- oregon busts -- its résumé.

Jump to a conference:
ACC | Big 12 | Big Ten
SEC | Independent | Group of 5

SEC

Bubble ticker spotlight: Oklahoma. The Sooners mightiness person the champion backmost successful the state with transportation John Mateer, whose existent dual-threat quality was connected afloat show successful a connection triumph against Michigan. Mateer led the Sooners successful passing and rushing successful a show that bumped them into the aboriginal playoff conversation, but if they inhabit that No. 12 spot connected Selection Day, they're out. With the projected Big 12 champion and Group of 5 champion looming extracurricular of the apical 12, the committee's No. 11 and No. 12 teams would get bumped out. The much pressing question, though, is whether Oklahoma has sustainability. ESPN's FPI gives the Sooners little than a 50% accidental to bushed Texas, South Carolina, Ole Miss, Tennessee and Alabama. Yes, Mateer gives Oklahoma's discourtesy a melodramatic boost and has revived the program's hopes of returning to nationalist relevance, but the Sooners person to beryllium amended astir him to beryllium the machine projections wrong.

The enigma: Alabama. Were the Tide that atrocious successful their nonaccomplishment to Florida State, oregon are the Seminoles that good? It's astir apt a operation of both, but however those teams fare volition interaction each other's résumés successful the committee gathering country each season. What if Alabama mislaid connected the roadworthy to a top-four ACC champion? What if FSU's large triumph was against a five-loss Alabama squad that spirals down th...