Doug Greenberg
David Purdum

David Purdum
ESPN Staff Writer
- Joined ESPN successful 2014
- Journalist covering gambling manufacture since 2008
Oct 12, 2025, 09:51 PM ET
As a wide regularisation each week, nationalist bettors thin to backmost favorites -- some connected the dispersed and successful moneyline parlays -- and the sportsbooks, successful turn, cheer for the underdogs to screen oregon adjacent triumph outright. When ample spreads travel around, it tin beryllium divisive to bettors, forcing them to take betwixt a blowout triumph oregon a much competitory game, nary substance however ample the accomplishment spread betwixt the teams.
This week, the Cincinnati Bengals were catching astir 2 touchdowns astatine Lambeau Field against the Green Bay Packers. For astir of the week, the Bengals were 14.5-point underdogs, but they took a somewhat astonishing magnitude of action, with BetMGM reporting 75% of wagers and 72% of grip down the Bengals connected Sunday morning.
ESPN BET had a tiny bulk of its dispersed grip for the crippled backing Cincinnati, but past dropped the enactment to 13.5 connected Sunday morning. That could person led to immoderate buyback, arsenic Green Bay finished with a tiny bulk of the grip starring into the opening kickoff.
It's not wholly wide wherefore the nationalist was connected Cincy aboriginal successful the week, but it could beryllium the Joe Flacco effect. The Bengals traded for Flacco earlier successful the week, and the seasoned backmost led the Cleveland Browns to a triumph implicit the Pack arsenic 7.5-point underdogs successful Week 3, the second-largest outright upset of the year.
Caesars Sportsbook caput of shot Joey Feazel believes the alteration astatine QB could person attracted big-money bettors, though helium notes that galore of the nationalist wagers were inactive backing Green Bay to screen the large number.
"We did spot an uptick successful wagers connected the Bengals moneyline, which I deliberation could beryllium attributed to Flacco taking power of this discourtesy implicit Jake Browning," Feazel said implicit email. "On the dispersed broadside of things, we saw the nationalist mostly connected the Packers and the sharps connected the Bengals +14.5 and +14. With the full being that low, sharps would seldom beryllium laying the points successful that situation."
While the Packers led the crippled wire-to-wire, the Bengals drove down the tract and scored a touchdown with 4 minutes to spell for a last people of 27-18, giving Green Bay the triumph and Cincinnati the cover.
The absorption from sportsbooks varied based connected the enactment that came in: As Feazel implied, the Packers' nationalist enactment meant a bully effect for the book, portion the Westgate SuperBook successful Las Vegas felt the symptom from enactment connected the Bengals, arsenic with BetMGM.
"Packers crippled truly wounded us," John Murray, vice president of Westgate SuperBook successful Las Vegas, told ESPN. "That last people was astir arsenic atrocious arsenic it could get for america betwixt teasers to Packers, consecutive bets connected Bengals, and the crippled someway going implicit the total."
Many entrants successful subsister contests were apt sweating a small whenever the Bengals got adjacent to evening the score. The Packers were by acold the astir selected squad successful the $1,000 introduction Circa Survivor contest, racking up 54.4% of the entries this week.
NFL likelihood & ends
Tampa Bay backmost Baker Mayfield began the play astatine 30-1 to triumph MVP. He's present the 2nd prime astatine +400, down lone Buffalo's Josh Allen (+155).
The Carolina Panthers, which bushed the favored Dallas Cowboys 30-27 connected Sunday, person covered the dispersed successful their past 8 games arsenic a location underdog.
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