Barnwell: Who's the real team to beat in the AFC? Why Week 1 caused big questions

For the past fewer years, the AFC has fundamentally been a three-team race. With each owed respect to the different playoff teams -- and with 1 notable objection from the Bengals -- the apical of the AFC has belonged to the Bills, Chiefs and Ravens. Those teams were the apical 3 seeds successful 2023 and 2024. In 2022, the Chiefs and Bills were atop the conference, and the Ravens mightiness person been 3rd if not for Lamar Jackson's late-season knee injury (they were sixth).

In a league wherever parity is each but guaranteed, these 3 teams and their quarterbacks person been locks. The Chiefs person won 7 consecutive part titles with Patrick Mahomes. The Bills person 5 successful a enactment with Josh Allen. Jackson's streak was interrupted by those 2 Decembers impacted by injuries, but leaving those aside, helium has 5 part titles successful six steadfast years arsenic Baltimore's starter. When you person 3 teams fundamentally guaranteed part titles if their quarterbacks enactment healthy, however could you onshore connected anybody other to beryllium the pick of the AFC crop?

Obviously, fixed their occurrence getting past these precise Buffalo and Baltimore teams successful the postseason, the Chiefs are perpetually the 1 to bushed successful the AFC. If we were going to prime which of these would onshore the much-vaunted apical effect successful the league successful 2025 and gain a first-round bye, though, determination are cases to beryllium made for each of the large three. The Chiefs are the Chiefs and conscionable won 15 games with what mightiness person been existent magic. The Bills person the reigning MVP and play successful the easiest part of the trio. And the Ravens are the analytics darling, with astir precocious metrics seeing them arsenic the champion squad successful shot implicit the anterior 2 seasons, adjacent though things didn't extremity good for them successful the playoffs.

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It should beryllium nary surprise, perhaps, that ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) saw the contention to the apical effect successful the AFC arsenic a dormant vigor earlier the season. The algorithm had the Ravens, Bills and Chiefs wrong 2 percent points of 1 different to onshore the apical playoff seed; the Ravens astatine 20.4%, the Bills astatine 18.8% and the Chiefs astatine 18.4%. There was a immense drop-off to the remainder of the conference, with nary different team's chances topping 8.1% (Bengals and Chargers).

Well, aft 1 week, FPI has changed its mind. It nary longer sees a three-team dormant heat. There's a fourth squad successful the premix and already a important favourite to onshore that first-round bye. And 1 of those 3 perennial favorites is successful existent information of falling retired of the contention for the apical effect earlier adjacent making it to Week 3.

Of course, I'm not FPI. Today, though, I privation to usage FPI's likelihood and what we saw from Week 1 to get a amended consciousness of what the contention is similar atop the AFC. Is determination truly a wide favorite? Should what happened successful Week 1 displacement things arsenic dramatically arsenic the exemplary suggests? Which squad snuck into the apical four? And is it truly clip to judge that 1 of these 3 stalwarts mightiness really nary longer beryllium the favourite to triumph its division?

Let's instrumentality a person look astatine what happened to these teams successful Week 1 and what mightiness hap next, starting with the caller favourite to triumph the co...