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Bill BarnwellSep 18, 2025, 06:30 AM ET
- Bill Barnwell is simply a elder NFL writer for ESPN.com. He analyzes shot on and disconnected the field similar nary 1 other connected the planet, penning astir in-season X's and O's, offseason transactions and truthful overmuch more.
He is the big of the Bill Barnwell Show podcast, with episodes released weekly. Barnwell joined ESPN successful 2011 arsenic a unit writer astatine Grantland.
Did you cognize the NFL playoffs really commencement successful September? Though they'll beryllium playing retired the remainder of the 2025 season careless of what happens successful Week 3, 10 teams are fundamentally playing to support their hopes of advancing to the existent postseason and winning Super Bowl LX live this weekend.
History tells us that starting 0-2 is simply a damper connected your chances of making it to the playoffs, but opening the play 0-3 is person to a decease knell. Since 2002 -- if we dainty the seventh-best squad successful each league arsenic a playoff qualifier earlier the NFL moved to the 14-team postseason format successful 2020 -- 13.3% of teams that started 0-2 overcame their dilatory starts and made the postseason. Three squads -- the Broncos, Rams and Ravens -- did truthful a twelvemonth ago.
Dropping to 0-3? Good luck. Since 2002, conscionable 3 of the 96 teams that opened the play with 3 consecutive losses person (or would have) advanced. Two of them are Mike Tomlin-coached Steelers teams that would person snuck into the playoffs arsenic No. 7 seeds successful 2013 and 2019. The different is the 2018 Texans, who rolled disconnected a nine-game winning streak aft their disfigured agelong successful September.
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That's a 3.1% occurrence rate. And though the summation of a 17th crippled successful 2021 gives these teams other runway to flooded their starts, the world is that 0-3 usually tells america what we request to know. If you can't triumph 1 of those archetypal 3 games, you astir apt don't person the endowment to triumph 9 oregon 10 of the ensuing 14, either.
So, with 10 teams sitting astatine 0-2 and warring to support their postseason hopes live this weekend, let's interruption down wherever they basal and their chances of fixing things successful the weeks to come. I'll statesman with the squad I deliberation has the champion accidental of righting the vessel and getting backmost into the playoff picture, which astir apt shouldn't beryllium a surprise. (I included chances to marque the playoffs via ESPN's Football Power Index.)
Jump to an 0-2 team:
CAR | CHI | CLE | HOU | KC
MIA | NO | NYG | NYJ | TEN
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